Skip to main content

Details

Number of People in Need of Care Higher than Prognosed

The number of people in need of care will be far higher in the coming years than prognosed. This is one result of this year’s Care Report, which SOCIUM – Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy at the University of Bremen produced on behalf of the BARMER health insurance company.

The SOCIUM authors, health economists Professor Heinz Rothgang and Dr. Rolf Müller, scientifically analyzed care statistics and routine data from BARMER for the report.
The result: In 2025 and the following years, one million more people will be in need of care than prognosed using conventional estimates. The authors believe the reason for this to be the effects of the last care reform and thus a broadening of those who have a right to services.

“The frequency of current illnesses - so-called prevalence - is used to find out how many people will need to be cared for in the future. This has resulted in said number being underestimated,” emphasizes Professor Rothgang. He demands a vocational training campaign.

Rapidly Increasing Number of People in Need of Care

Since the 2010s, the circle of patients who are entitled to services has been continually broadened. This is the reason that progressing cognitive impairments, such as dementia, can be taken into consideration in terms of service entitlement from the care insurance service. According to the statistical care data, the number of people in need of care increased by 713,000 between 2017 and 2019. Of said increase, 145,000 cases were down to demographic developments and 568,000 cases were caused by other effects that stem from the introduction of care grades.

“Current prognoses, which are based on care prevalence in 2019, already underestimate the number of people in need of care in 2020 by 6 percent,” warns Professor Rothgang.  

The care report authors assume that there will be no further broadening of the circle of persons entitled to services by means of legal measures but that the introduction effect of the last reform will only slowly become less by the year 2025. In total, there will then be one million more people in need of care in 2025 than prognosed by conventional estimates.  The more recent estimates especially point out those in need of care with care grades 1 to 3 and those who receive care allowance.

Need for Carers Is 3 Percent Higher than Conventionally Estimated

Despite the great number of people in need of care with low care grades, there will be a higher need than conventionally estimated in the stationary care sector, according to the Bremen scientists’ calculations. In comparison, 3 percent more carers will be needed than calculated using conventional methods. In total, this means that 510,000 trained care staff, 196,000 assistant care staff with 1 - 2 years of training, and 386,000 assistant care staff with no training are expected to be needed in 2030. This equals 81,000 more trained care staff, 87,000 more assistant care staff with training, and 14,000 more care staff with no training than stated in the care statistics for 2019. This is calculated as an extra need of 182,000 care staff in 2030 when compared to 2019.

Vocational Training Campaign Needed

To conclude, the main problem remains the recruiting of care staff. Fulfilling the increased demands is the central challenge faced by care policy, emphasizes Professor Rothgang.  “The number of vocational training places needs to be increased. Additionally, the job needs to be made more attractive by means of better working conditions and higher pay.” This may motivate carers to stay in their jobs for longer periods and motivate potential vocational trainees to choose this job.

Further Information:


BARMER Care Report:https://www.socium.uni-bremen.de/uploads/News/2021/20211201_BARMER_Pflegereport_2021.pdf

Statement from Prof. Rothgang: https://www.socium.uni-bremen.de/uploads/News/2021/20211201_Statement_Rothgang_Pflegereport2021.pdf

Presentation by Prof. Rothgang: https://www.socium.uni-bremen.de/uploads/News/2021/20211201_Prasentation_Rothgang_Pflegereport2021.pdf

 

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Heinz Rothgang
SOCIUM – Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
University of Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58557
Email: rothgangprotect me ?!uni-bremenprotect me ?!.de

Dr. rer. pol. Rolf Müller
SOCIUM – Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
University of Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58554
Email: rmintprotect me ?!uni-bremenprotect me ?!.de

Nurse consoling senior woman holding her hand.
In 2025 and the following years, one million more people will be in need of care than prognosed using conventional estimates. The authors believe the reason for this to be the effects of the last care reform and thus a broadening of those who have a right to services.